Dual System Estimates
- Combines two data sources (typically administrative records and surveys) to produce more accurate population estimates.
- Addresses gaps or inconsistencies that occur when relying on a single data source.
- Commonly applied to measures like health insurance coverage and poverty rates.
Definition
Section titled “Definition”Dual system estimates in census refer to a method of estimating the population characteristics of a certain area or group by combining data from two different sources. This approach is commonly used in censuses to improve the accuracy and reliability of the estimates, particularly when there are gaps or inconsistencies in the data from a single source.
Explanation
Section titled “Explanation”The dual system estimate process uses one data source to provide a baseline and a second source to capture information missing or misrecorded in the first. Administrative records (for example, from government agencies or private entities) serve as an initial estimate of a population characteristic. Because administrative data can be incomplete or inaccurate for some individuals, a survey is conducted to directly collect information from people who may not be represented fully in the administrative data. The survey data are then combined with the administrative data to produce a more comprehensive and accurate estimate of the population characteristic of interest.
Examples
Section titled “Examples”Estimating the uninsured population
Section titled “Estimating the uninsured population”- Administrative records: collect counts of people enrolled in health insurance plans from government agencies and private insurers to provide a baseline estimate of the insured population.
- Survey: ask individuals about their health insurance coverage and barriers to obtaining insurance (such as cost or eligibility).
- Combination: merge survey responses with administrative records to produce a more complete estimate of the uninsured population.
Estimating the population living in poverty
Section titled “Estimating the population living in poverty”- Administrative records: use household income and expense data from sources like tax returns and benefit program records to create a baseline poverty estimate.
- Survey: collect information from households about sources of income, expenses, and any financial assistance received.
- Combination: integrate survey data with administrative records to obtain a more comprehensive estimate of the poverty rate.
Use cases
Section titled “Use cases”- Improving the accuracy and reliability of population estimates in censuses.
- Informing policy decisions and allocating resources more effectively by providing more comprehensive estimates of characteristics such as health insurance coverage and poverty rates.
Notes or pitfalls
Section titled “Notes or pitfalls”- Administrative records may be incomplete or inaccurate (for example, individuals not enrolled in programs, not filing tax returns, or otherwise absent from administrative lists).
- Surveys are used to capture information on individuals missing from or misrepresented in administrative data; however, combining both sources is necessary to address gaps and inconsistencies.
Related terms
Section titled “Related terms”- Administrative records
- Surveys
- Census
- Poverty rate
- Health insurance coverage